Joe’s Weather Blog: Ida Churns in the Gulf of Mexico (SAT-8/28) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

No big changes to our local weather throughout the weekend. What has been written and discussed over the past week continues with chances of rain tomorrow. There may be a few showers in the morning… with better chances later in the day or in the evening. Another chance for pop-ups in the area on Monday, then not much else for KC besides that.

Ida is the main story of this weekend… as it will make landfall in Louisiana later this evening until early Sunday.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and windy. Occasional gusts of more than 20 MPH. Highs in the lower 90s

Tonight: Clear and soft with stockings in the lower 70s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with a few showers / thunderstorms. The main chance seems to be late afternoon or evening at KC. Treble in the 90 ° range

On Monday: Partly cloudy with a few scattered thunderstorms possible. Peaks in the mid-1980s

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Discussion:

Ida is the main issue for the weekend as the national media start to pay attention to what’s going on in the Gulf.

Ida made landfall yesterday in western Cuba… then went out into the gulf where the waters are warm to warm and the storm has a lot going in its favor to really start to organize today.

Here is the current information which should update automatically. Let’s start with the satellite loop.

You can see the beginnings of an eye trying to clear itself… a sign of strengthening and organization. The storm is holding on this morning, according to an expert investigating the system. Its structure still looks a bit oblong… with maybe a bit of shear on the north side of the storm.

The Hurricane Center is still planning a rapid escalation stage to begin today. This means that Ida is expected to ramp up by at least 35 mph over a 24 hour period. The good news, in a way, is that Ida is traveling at around 15 mph or so… and will only have about 36 hours to spend in the Gulf before disembarking. Still, there are a lot of winds that can increase in this time frame.

Again, landing appears to be around 7 p.m. Sunday.

The location of said landing hasn’t really changed much over the past 24 hours… focusing more or less south of Houma, LA. There may be slight adjustments to the final landing point. Remember that the worst part of the hurricane will be towards and east of the storm center in terms of winds / wave.

There has already been quite a bit of rain in Los Angeles in recent days. Improper configuration due to saturated conditions. This is a tweet I sent last night

Notice those 1-3 ″ totals in SE LA with higher estimates in southern MS… now look at that.

Thus, more than 8 inches of additional rain is possible, which makes flooding problems worse.

Then the storm surge aspect of the storm. This is water brought from the Gulf associated with the storm winds. Water will drain through wetlands… and also create flood conditions. The surge was the main killer in Katrina. By the way, Katrina’s 16th birthday will be tomorrow… the same day Ida crashes to the ground.

This map shows potential thrust… which can be under / overestimated depending on Ida’s possible strength when she disembarks.

Although in an SI storm surge scenario Ida strengthens earlier, this equates to the worst wave as water has a chance to collect sooner … if it waits for its peak near landing, the worst of the wave can be reduced somewhat. However, even if the readings exceed 9 FEET, water will rush (red colors).

The reinforcing part of the storm should really come later in the day in particular. IF it doesn’t really go up tonight, it might not be a Category 4 (forecast) landing storm… but as I wrote about it… gasoline is just waiting on the way to storm.

There is no doubt that this part of the gulf creates rapid intensification under the right circumstances.

The obvious hope is that it doesn’t get worse yet.

At this point, the highest risk of winds of at least 74+ MPH is guided by this.

Here is the HRRR model showing the storm coming ashore… again, there may be slight adjustments in the end point of landing.

For timing… 7:00 p.m. is 0Z> 1:00 a.m. is 6Z> 7:00 a.m. is 12Z and 1:00 p.m. is 18Z

From the wind point of view …

Garry and Alex will keep you updated live.

Featured photo is from Austin Hamilton in AI

Joe

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