Joe’s Blog: Major storm this weekend (MAR-11/1) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

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It’s a bright Tuesday and the start of a new month in KC. November is here and I have a feeling it’s going to be a month full of ups and downs… that’s what November is doing here. We’re going to be on the soft side of things for a while to start the month. At some point around the middle of the month, there should be a fairly strong cold air mass entering the area. So let’s make the most of these really mild to warm days while we can.

The month begins with average highs of 60°/39°… and ends with average highs falling into the 47° range with average lows of 28°. We are losing an average of 13° compared to the November highs. We also averaged 1.1″ of snow.

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Provide:

Today: Sunny and warm. Breezy in the afternoon with highs in the upper mid 70s. Winds blowing around 25 mph during the afternoon.

Tonight: fair and chilly but OK for early November with lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: windy and warm. 40 MPH gusts possible. Highs in the upper mid-70s

Thursday: Pretty much the same with more clouds.

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Discussion:

October ended 2.7° above the month’s average and 1.54″ below the month’s average for precipitation. We were at 88° on the extremely hot side and 24° on the low side.

So far from 1/1 to 10/31 we are the 47th hottest temperature in KC history…last year it was warmer until the end of October. 8 other years were the hottest (this century) until the end of October.

We are the 44th driest so far through 10/31 at 29.40″. Only 5 other years of this century have we been drier.

The “official” NOAA forecast for November is therefore as follows.

We average 2″ of precipitation for the month.

Interesting to see this small chance of additional moisture from KC to the south. It should be fine…I’m expecting a wetter than average November in the KC area.

As temperatures cool in northern latitudes with the setting sun…and colder air masses build up…while southern latitudes cool only slowly…larger weather transitions occur with an energized jet stream.

By the end of this weekend…really cold air will rise in northwestern Canada, while very warm air aloft will cross the Great Lakes and the eastern United States to eastern Canada.

5,000 foot temperature anomalies for Sunday evening

This will lead to interesting weather conditions in the United States and Canada over the next 10 days or so. This cold western Canadian air will need to be watched. Some of it could briefly descend in our region in the middle of next week, with perhaps a larger part around the middle of the month.

At least for this week… it will be warm. No record… but temperatures will remain 15-20°+ above average until Thursday and possibly Friday as well.

I wrote a long blog yesterday about setting up for Friday and Saturday… and there haven’t really been too many changes. The data however continues to suggest widespread heavy rain still likely for the region… with many areas seeing at least an inch of rain with a rise of 3″ in places. So basically let me update the totals through the data early this morning.

euro
SFP
ICON

The EURO and GFS sets sit solidly in the 1.5-2″ range.

There are slight positional differences with the system coming out of the southwestern United States over the weekend. The GFS takes it a bit further northwest of KC while the EURO brings it to the top of the KC metro on Saturday…one reason for the differences in rainfall production compared to model data.

At this point, the severe weather issues are more limited to the area west of KC…

Severe weather risk Thursday

Severe weather risk Friday

We’ll see how things work out in the next few days.

Dew points should be well into the 50s on Thursday and possibly the lower 60s on Friday. So you will feel a difference in the air later in the week with the strong winds blowing from the south.

A reminder that we have set our clocks back an hour later Saturday evening to Sunday morning. So the sun will rise at 6:51 a.m. Sunday and set around 5:12 p.m. Sunday evening, so much of the tailgating will take place after sunset… the weather seems to remain balmy by early November standards for the game though. .

Also of note is a late season tropical system that may become a hurricane as it heads into Central America…that’s Lisa.

There is another system moving across the North Atlantic which may briefly attain tropical characteristics…which may become Martin.

The pattern is however still open to something else forming this weekend off the southeast coast and off the Bahamas…it could be Nicole.

This is data up to 2015…there were other systems in November after that…

We average a tropical storm in November and with Lisa in the Caribbean taking care of that. We’ll see if we add more to the height

We average about 14 named storms per season… Lisa is doing 12. Maybe more in the next two weeks?

The background photo comes from Seri Mills. We’ve had some great sunrises/sunsets over the past week.

Joe

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